ALEX McLEISH'S Scotland are heading for glorious failure in the Euro 2008
qualifiers.
An agonising 1-1 draw against Italy at Hampden in the last match of the
campaign gives Roberto Donadoni's men a grand total of 25 points, two
more than us, which secures them second spot in Group B behind France.
This isn't a bad dream but the findings of a computer programme which
makes frighteningly accurate predictions of football results after being
fed screeds of information about teams and players.
Record Sport yesterday used it to see just how Scotland's qualifying campaign
for Switzerland and Austria next summer might pan out.
Graham MacNair is the founder of touch-line, a Glasgow-based company which
specialises, among others things, in predicting football results in an
incredibly accurate fashion.
They provide stats and data for global football and work with on-line
betting, so they know their stuff.
So with Group B so precariously balanced, we asked Graham and his boffins
to predict how it's all going to end up.
We really should have known the answer.
Graham explained how it all works and for those of you out there who failed
maths - an algorithm means a rule for solving a mathematical problem.
Hesaid: "Our predictor works out an algorithm which uses current
form, takes into account the form of, say, the last six games and also
a little bit of the history between the teams. It then comes up with a
percentage of whether it will be a home win, away win or draw.
"In the past, results have been pretty accurate. We also look at
when goals are scored, how many yellow cards are issued, biggest victories
and defeats etc.
"Our predictions are usually level with the odd-setters who work
for bookmakers - and how often do they get it wrong?"
The answer, of course, is not often. So how did the computer say we would
get on? Actually, pretty good.
The only defeat predicted was a 3-1 loss to France in Paris. The system
threw up a win over Ukraine at Hampden but a draw in Georgia three days
later.
With wins forecast in our other matches that would put the Scots on 22
points going into the final game in Glasgow against Italy, with the world
champions predicted to be on 24 points prior to kick-off.
Victory would get us through but the computer did its sums and came up
with a 1-1 draw. But before Big Eck chucks it, it should be pointed out
that football is not an exact science.
So the question has to be asked, would the computer have been spot on
with the outcome of Scotland-France before a ball was kicked?
Graham admitted: "Erm, possibly an away win. It wouldn't have predicted
Gary Caldwell scoring the winner."
,
30 March 2007.
Russian ladies dream about happy marriage.
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